US dollar index fluctuates and falls, Federal Reserve Director Cook formally sues Trump

On August 29, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.14. On Thursday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, rebounding intraday as U.S. GDP and initial data were better than expected, but it ended up closing down 0.29% at 97.859. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.209%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.637%. As the market continues to evaluate the threat of the Fed's independence and waits for the release of key inflation data, spot gold rose for the third consecutive trading day, and once stood above the $3,420 mark at the end of the trading day, finally closing up 0.58%, closing at $3,417.08/ounce, a five-week high; spot silver closed up 1.18%, at $39.05/ounce. As the Russian and Ukrainian leaders had almost no hope of meeting, it hit hope for the peace process between the two countries, and international crude oil reversed its decline during the session, achieving two consecutive weekly positive momentum. WTI crude oil recovered the $64 mark and finally closed up 0.69% to $64.09/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.68% to $67.62/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at $97.90. The dollar index fell on Thursday and has not yet broken through key resistance levels. Meanwhile, traders' expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut next month continue to heat up. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams strengthens the "data-dependent" policy stance - According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market currently believes that the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting from September 16 to 17The rate has reached 89%, and the cumulative interest rate cut is expected to reach 55 basis points by the end of the year. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 97.10–97.30.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1677. Because of the ongoing conflict between U.S. President Donald Trump and Director Lisa Cook, the failure to gain traction with optimistic U.S. data. Technically, a successful test of resistance level 1.1685–1.1700 will open the road for testing the next resistance level 1.1785–1.1800.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3506. The pound remains deeply rooted in recent consolidation, but the market is preparing for an upward response after the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation data to be released on Friday. Technically, if GBP/USD remains above resistance level 1.3485–1.3500, it will move to the next resistance level 1.3580–1.3600.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold hovered around 3413.82. Gold rose to a five-week high of $3,413 as traders dismissed the solid U.S. economic data, justified the current stance of interest rates being kept unchanged. However, safe-haven demand driven by the threat of Fed independence has supported gold and silver prices.

Technical: After breaking through the $3,400 mark, the upward trend in gold will continue, which opens the door to testing the next higher high of $3,438 on July 23. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum. That being said, if gold rises above $3,438, the next area of ​​interest will be the June 16 high of $3,452, ahead of the all-time high of $3,500. Instead, a 3,364-day simple moving average (SMA) that falls below $20 will expose the 50-day moving average $3,348, followed by the 100-day moving average $3,321.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was 63.53 nearby. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, rebounding from early declines after the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump was dissatisfied after learning that Russia had attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight.

Technical: From the daily trend, U.S. crude oil has received multiple support at the $60 line, forming a phased bottom, while the pressure around $65 has not yet broken through. Judging from the inventory data performance, although the market has momentum to rebound, its sustainability still depends on whether demand can continue to be strong. If inventories continue to decline in the future and demand remains strong, oil prices are expected to break through the resistance of $65, otherwise it is not ruled out that the $60 mark will be backtested again.

Forex market trading reminder on August 29, 2025

14:45French August CPI monthly rate initial value

14:45FF's second quarter GDP annual rate final value

15:00Swiss August KOF economic leading indicator

15:55German August seasonally adjusted unemployment

15:55German August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

20:00German August August CPI monthly rate initial value

20:30Canada June GDP monthly rate

>20:30 US July core PCE price index annual rate

20:30 US July personal expenditure monthly rate

20:30 US July core PCE price index monthly rate

21:45 US August Chicago PMI

22:00 US August Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value

22:00 US August one-year inflation rate expected final value

The next day 01:00 US the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to August 29

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