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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Gold price hit 3450, setting its best monthly performance since April, with the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut + geopolitical risk aversion driving". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 1, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,450/ounce, and gold prices hit their best monthly performance since April last Friday, with a high of $3,453.82/ounce, as U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.93/barrel, oil prices fell last Friday, and traders expect U.S. demand, the world's largest oil market, to decline, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will increase supply this fall.
The S&P 500 fell 0.64% last Friday to close at 6460.26 points. The Nasdaq fell 1.15% to 21,455.55 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20% to 45,544.88 points.
Dell fell nearly 9%, one of the biggest declines in the S&P 500, as the high manufacturing costs of AI-optimized servers and intensified oalcs.cnpetition have cast a shadow on the oalcs.cnpany's forecast of the oalcs.cnpany's optimistic demand for AI infrastructure.
Nvidia fell 3.4%, down for the third consecutive day. The AI heavyweight oalcs.cnpany released a quarterly report on Wednesday that did not meet high expectations from investors, but confirmed that spending related to AI infrastructure remains strong. Zach, Portfolio Management, Horizon InvestmentsaryHill said: The weakness of leading technology oalcs.cnpanies is not the first time we are worried about problems such as excessive investment in the field of artificial intelligence and insufficient monetization opportunities.
U.S. consumer spending hit its biggest increase in four months in July, while service sector inflation rebounded, but economists do not believe signs of strong domestic demand will prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates next month amid weaker labor market conditions. The U.S. Department of oalcs.cnmerce reported last Friday that the price pressure brought by import tariffs is moderate.
The U.S. tariff exemption on imported parcels worth less than $800 also ended last Friday, which increased corporate costs and, in turn, increased consumer costs.
Traders generally expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. "Even if we see inflation rising (it looks like that), the Fed may ignore that because it will be related to tariffs and is temporary," said Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer at SEI. "The U.S. stock market closed on Monday due to the Labor Day holiday. Expectations of interest rate cuts helped indicators S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow rose for the fourth straight month, while the technology-intensive Nasdaq rose for the fifth straight month. Alibaba soared 13%, one of the largest oalcs.cnpanies on Wall Street, after a report said quarterly growth in its cloud oalcs.cnputing business was stronger than expected driven by demand for artificial intelligence. In addition, according to the Wall Street Journal, Alibaba has developed a new artificial intelligence chip.
Six of the S&P 500's 11 industry indexes rose, with health care leading the gains, up 0.73%, followed by consumer staples, up 0.64%. The S&P 500 Technology Index fell 1.63%. The small-sized oalcs.cnpany Russell 2000 index fell 0.5%, with a 7% increase in August. In August, the S&P 500 rose 1.9%, the Dow rose 3.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%.
Federal Governor Waller, one of the contenders to the Fed's chairman, said last Thursday that he hopes to start a rate cut next month, consistent with President Trump's call for a lower cost of borrowing.
The court hearing in Trump's attempt to fire Fed Director Cook ended last Friday, and the judge who tried the unprecedented legal battle did not immediately make a ruling, meaning the Fed's policymaker will remain in office for the time being.
Chip maker Marvell plummeted nearly 19% after forecasting quarterly revenues below expectations. Caterpillar, the global economic vane, fell 3.65%, after the heavy equipment maker predicted tariff-related spending will increase in 2025.
Gold prices rose about 1% last Friday, marking their best monthly performance since April, as U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates in September. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3447.09 per ounce. Gold rose 4.8% in August. Delivery in DecemberU.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to $3,515.70.
The US dollar remained stable, but the monthly decline was 2.2%. The lower dollar has reduced the cost of buying gold for overseas buyers. In July, U.S. consumer spending grew steadily, while basic inflation rebounded as import tariffs raised the prices of some oalcs.cnmodities. The U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. "We expect the Fed to cut interest rates once, or possibly twice this year, which generally supports oalcs.cnmodity prices, including gold and silver," said David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures. "Traders raise the probability of the Fed's 25 basis points cut at its September policy meeting from 85% before the data was released.
Spot silver rose 2.1% to $39.89 an ounce, up for the fourth straight month. Platinum rose 0.3% to $1,363.30, achieving a monthly increase; palladium fell 0.1% to $1,101.85, recording a monthly decline. Oil market
Oil prices fell last Friday, with traders expecting demand in the world's largest oil market, the United States, to drop, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to increase supply this fall.
Brent crude oil futures fell 0.73%, with a settlement price of $68.12 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.91% to settle at $64.01.
PVMOil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said that the market turned its attention to next week's OPEC+ Oil-producing Countries Conference to a certain extent. OPEC+ crude oil production has increased, and the alliance has accelerated production growth to regain market share, which has prompted traders to expect increased supply, putting pressure on global oil prices. The U.S. summer driving season will end after the Labor Day holiday on Monday, marking the end of the U.S. highest demand period.
Price FuturesGroup senior analyst Phil Flynn said oil prices rose earlier last week as Ukraine attacked Russian oil export terminals, but reports of Ukraine's European allies on a possible ceasefire prompted oil prices to fall.
Trump doubled tariffs on India's imported goods to 50% last Wednesday, and investors are also paying attention to India's response to the U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian oil.
Dealers said that so far, India has been ignoring U.S. opposition and Russia's oil exports to India are expected to increase in September.
The dollar weakened against the euro and Swiss franc last Friday, with the dollar index recording a monthly decline of about 2% in August as traders prepared for the Fed's interest rate cut in September.
The US inflation data meets expectations. The US dollar strengthened at the beginning of the data release, but then gave up the gains, failing to break the three consecutive days of decline.
The U.S. Department of oalcs.cnmerce data released last Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in July, slowing oalcs.cnpared with the unrevised 0.3% increase in June. The data supports broad expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its policy meeting on September 16-17. CME’s FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates is 87%, up from 63% a month ago.
Dan Tobon, head of foreign exchange strategy at Citigroup G10, said the foreign exchange market is still in a range of volatility, and investors are waiting for the next U.S. employment report released on September 5. Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management, noted that weak consumer confidence continues to shroud the nervous market, with investors rebalancing and hedging the portfolio at the end of the month after U.S. stocks rose overall in August.
In addition, US President Trump's recent attempt to increase his influence on monetary policy, including attempting to remove Fed Director Cook, which also puts pressure on the dollar.
A federal judge said last Friday that he would arrange a quick trial for Cook to seek temporary stop Trump from removing him. Cook said in the lawsuit that Trump had no justifiable reason to remove her from office.
Shinohara said that market instability remains the focus, and the extensive media coverage of the Cook hearing has added fuel to the fire.
Trump repeatedly criticized the Fed and its Chairman Powell for failing to cut interest rates in a timely manner, and he is trying to reshape the institution. It is reported that Fed Director Waller is one of the candidates Trump considers nominating Powell as Fed Chairman. Waller said last Thursday that he hopes to cut interest rates starting in September and “fully expect” more cuts to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.
Citi's Tobon said, "It's interesting that the foreign exchange market's response to policy relevance and Fed-related dynamics is relatively modest - which may be due to insufficient liquidity in the summer, and may be because of the market expectation that any adjustments by the Fed will trigger a cycle of rate cuts similar to that of a fully digested rate cut. This further confirms our view - everything will depend on the data."
A survey released by the ECB on Friday showed that consumer inflation expectations in the euro zone were basically stable at or above the ECB's 2% target in July. The euro rose 0.11% to $1.1696; the pound remained flat at $1.3502. Both rose more than 2% in August. The US dollar rose slightly by 0.02% to 146.985 yen, but fell 2.5% in August; the US dollar fell 0.26% to 0.7997, and fell 1.3% in August.
The New Zealand dollar has strengthened slightly, after New Zealand Fed Chairman Neil Quigley has submitted his resignation, citing negative impacts on the handling of the sudden resignation of the Fed Chairman earlier this year.
After the US tariffs on Indian goods exported to the United States have been increased to 50%, Indian Minister of oalcs.cnmerce and Industry Peyush Goyal said in his first public speech last Friday (August 29), local time that India will not "submission" but focus on opening up new markets. According to reports, Goyal said at a construction event in New Delhi that day that India has always been open to the signing of a free trade agreement. But he also added that India "will neither surrender nor show weakness" and "we will continue to work together to explore new markets." The report quoted Goyal as saying that the Indian government will introduce a number of measures in the oalcs.cning days to support various industries and promote exports. He said, "I can confidently say that India's export volume this year will exceed the figures for 2024-2025."
According to Thai media reports, the Thai Cabinet held a special meeting today (August 30) to appoint Deputy Prime Minister Putan as Acting Prime Minister.
Ryomasa Akazawa said on the 29th that he needs to visit the United States at least once for consultation on the issue of Japan-US tariff negotiations. Eijo Kumano, chief economic analyst at the Japan First Life Economics Institute, believes that due to the changing US policies, there is still great uncertainty in the negotiations between Japan and the United States, but the negative impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy has gradually emerged. Eijo Kumano, chief economic analyst at the Japan First Life Economics Institute: Japanese oalcs.cnpanies are still facing heavy tariff pressure and have to transfer tariff costs significantly to the selling price, which will inevitably curb sales in the US market.
The US government officially raised the tariff rate on Indian goods imported to the United States to 50% from the 27th to punish India's import of Russian oil. According to foreign media reports, India plans to increase Russian oil imports in September. Since the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the West imposed sanctions on Russia, India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil transportation. Market data shows that in the first 20 days of August, India imported 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, the same as in July, and Russian oil accounted for about 40% of India's total imports.
The Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement on August 30, saying that they would retaliate against the death of several important members of the organization in the Israeli air strikes. Mehdi Masharat, chairman of the Houthi armed forces' "Supreme Political oalcs.cnmittee", delivered a speech through the organization's Masila TV station, saying that he would take revenge soon. He reiterated that the Houthi armed forces "will not change their position on the Gaza Strip until the aggression ceases and the blockade is lifted." Previously, the Houthi armed forces oalcs.cnrmed the outside world that its executive director Ahmed Rahavi and several colleagues on 28During the annual work meeting, Japan was killed in an Israeli air strike, and several other members were injured and are currently undergoing treatment in the hospital.
According to the US Axios News oalcs.cnwork, senior White House officials accused some European leaders of their seemingly supporting US President Trump's diplomatic efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but in fact they secretly undermine the progress made since the US-Russia Alaska summit. At present, the White House has instructed the Ministry of Finance to list the options for sanctions that Europe can impose on Russia. The report pointed out that although Trump and Putin have held talks for two weeks, the peace process has not yet seen any obvious breakthrough. Trump's team blamed European allies, saying it "delayed conflict and raised expectations but put the United States at the cost." Some officials said that the White House is gradually losing patience and Trump is considering temporarily withdrawing from the mediation role until at least one side of Russia and Ukraine shows greater willingness to oalcs.cnpromise. Senior European officials expressed surprise at the US accusations.
According to the Japanese News Agency, on the 31st local time, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba went to the Self-Defense Force Central Hospital in Setagaya District, Tokyo for treatment. Sources said the reason for the medical treatment was "swelling of the legs", and he was examined in the hospital and received prescriptions for pain relief. The report mentioned that when Shigeru Ishiba returned to Tokyo from Miyagi Prefecture on August 30, he stopped at the Tokyo Station due to leg discomfort. In addition, on July 29, he also received plaster in the Prime Minister's Infirmary due to foot pain.
According to the official WeChat account of the National Data Administration, on August 28, at the "High-Quality Data Set Theme Exchange Activities" of the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo, Embodied Intelligent and Dexonomy Hands Diversified Grabbing Simulation Data Sets (DexonomySim) was released open source. DexonomySim (DexonomySim) is introduced and released by Galaxy General under the guidance of the Digital Technology and Infrastructure Construction Department of the National Data Administration. DexonomySim is designed for embossed intelligent robots with a dexterity grabbing task. It contains more than 9.5 million high-quality grab poses, covering more than 10,000 objects and 31 oalcs.cnmonly used grasp types, covering about 94% of the types in human grasp classification. It is the largest open source high-quality synthetic data set for dexterity hand-operated operation in the field of embossed intelligence.
The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center announced the China Purchasing Managers Index for August on August 31. Judging from the non-manufacturing industry, the expansion of non-manufacturing industry has accelerated, and the prosperity level of the service industry has rebounded significantly, while due to weather factors, the construction industry's business activity index has declined. The non-manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and rose to the high of the year.
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