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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Seven Major Events to Become the Global Market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! Original content is as follows:
After last month's major amendment, the U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP, became even more important. The prospect of the release of the jobs report is full of suspense, and there are two court cases that have attracted much attention.
1. Trade frictions may be exacerbated by Trump's policy setbacks
Illegal—The U.S. Court of Appeals believes that most of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, confirming the International Trade Court's ruling. However, Friday's new ruling allows these tariffs to remain unchanged until mid-October and allow appeals to the Supreme Court.
What will happen next? The situation is undoubtedly confusing. Although investors prefer free trade, they also desire certainty. These tariffs remain in effect until at least October 14, meaning there is no immediate change. Interim measures may become permanent measures, while the U.S. The Supreme Court tends to support Trump on almost every issue.
However, if the government tries to impose additional tariffs on trading partners, the ruling could weaken the government's stance and increase tensions. Trump recently promoted tariffs on furniture imports and expressed anger at the digital service tax imposed by some countries, believing that these taxes are punishing U.S. tech oalcs.cnpanies.
2. Fed independence is facing a test again
On Tuesday, the U.S. trading session. Can the Federal Reserve (Fed, Director Lisa Cook stay in office? President Trump fired her on accusation of mortgage fraud. Cook filed a lawsuit, saying it was illegal. A preliminary hearing was held on Friday, but no ruling was reached. The next discussion is scheduled to take place on Tuesday.
If Cook is allowed to remain in office during the trial, it will enhance what the market depends onIndependence. If she is banned from participating in interest rate decisions, it will mean that the government's intention to reduce the cost of borrowing is more obvious.
The judge did not immediately allow Cook to stay on Friday, which may be a worrying signal for her and the market.
As with tariffs, temporary measures may be more important than permanent measures.
3. ISM Manufacturing PMI provides the first NFP clue
Tuesday, 22:00 Beijing time. The first clue to Friday’s non-farm employment data oalcs.cnes from ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI,). This forward-looking indicator fell to 48 points in July, further entering the contraction range. It is expected to rebound now, but will still be below the 50-point expansion and contraction dividing line.
In addition to the total index, investors will also focus on the price payment oalcs.cnponent, which reflects inflation. The industry seems to be concerned about the price increase – the score in July was 64.8.
4. JOLTS job openings are expected to remain stable
Wednesday, 22:00 Beijing time. How many workers have U.S. employers hired? This is The questions answered by JOLTS, despite lag. July data shows that annualized job openings may fall from 7.44 million in June. In recent months, the data has fluctuated between 7 million and 8 million.
Although the data is for July, while the non-farm employment data is for August, the Federal Reserve will pay attention to the release and become more sensitive to the labor market.
5. ADP non-farm employment changes are more important than ever
Thursday, 20:15 Beijing time. The largest wage provider in the United States was proven last month that when official employment data were revised down, ADP's The data also appears pessimistic. This makes the upcoming data even more critical.
After reporting a 104K increase in private sector employment in July, the increase in August is expected to be smaller. The release usually triggers short-term volatility, but also helps shape NFP expectations. This time, unexpected results may trigger a persistent trend.
6. ISM Services PMI is at a crossroads
Thursday, 22:00 Beijing time. The last clue to the employment report oalcs.cnes from ISM's Services PMI. Most Americans work in this industry. The total index in July fell to 50.1, just for expansion Minimum. Slight growth is expected now.
It is worth mentioning that preliminary readings for S&P Global PMI show a score of 55.4 in August, significantly better. However, the ISM data is more authoritative.
The employment oalcs.cnponent fell to 46.4 points last month, indicating a contraction of recruitment, while the price payment oalcs.cnponent was 69.9, which is at a fairly high level. Overall, the ISM service industry PMI depicts a stagflation situation.
7. Non-farm employment data will prove explosive
Friday, 20:30 Beijing time. How is the U.S. labor market performance? PreviousThe non-farm employment data are shocking - not only showing a disappointing job growth in July, at only 73K, but also an abnormal downgrade of 258K for the previous two months. The average employment growth between May and July was only 35K.
President Trump responded strongly, firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, Director of the oalcs.cnmissioner, who is in charge of statistics.
The economic calendar shows that August will increase by 78K. It should be noted that these forecasts may change based on the leading data released this week.
In addition to the correction, investors will also focus on the U.S. unemployment rate, which is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%
The new month brings increased liquidity and volatility as US Bank on Monday The impact of holidays. Please be cautious when trading
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