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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The market expects OPEC+ to press the "pause button" for increasing production this week, and gold breaks through $3,500!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 2, during the Asian session on Tuesday, spot gold trading around $3,480/ounce, and gold prices hit a more than four-month high of $3,489.78/ounce on Monday, just $10 away from the April high. Boosted by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bets and the weakening of the dollar, silver prices also exceeded $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011; U.S. crude oil trading around $64.57/barrel, as the market was worried that the intensified air strikes in Russia and Ukraine could lead to supply disruptions, and the weakening of the dollar provided additional support for oil prices. The dollar hit a five-week low on Monday, and investors were waiting for a series of U.S. job market data this week, which may affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Traders are also evaluating U.S. inflation data and court rulings that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, and his wrestling with the Fed over his attempt to fire Fed Director Cook.
According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the money market recently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 100 basis points rate cut by the fall of 2026 is about 90%.
Analysts say the U.S. economy is no longer as good as it has been for most of the past decade, providing reasons for a weaker dollar, and further signs of weaker job markets are expected to support this claim.
Social Bank analyst Klaus Baader said a severe weakness (economic data) would mean the Fed would respond more powerfully than market forecasts, but if the May/June weakness is seen as a statistical illusion, then the prospect of rising inflation is almost certainly acceptable, considering the next year or soDetermined, rate cuts seem unnecessary," some analysts still believe that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points later this month.
Political risks have become the focus of market attention, and the French government may face failure in a vote of confidence on a plan to cut budgets across the board. Analysts point out that the euro will only be under pressure when such risks show signs of spreading within the euro zone, which is not obvious at the moment.
As the United States continues to negotiate with major trading partners, investors are also paying close attention to trade policy. es) Economist Mohit Kumar said we don't think the court ruling will have much impact on the market, and the matter will be handed over to the Supreme Court, which is likely to make a ruling in favor of Trump. As Trump stepped up efforts to exert greater influence on monetary policy, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have also dragged down the dollar.
Japanese trade negotiator Ryoseki Akazawa said on Tuesday that his next visit to the United States has not been determined. Akazawa added that there is no misunderstanding with the United States in trade negotiations.
BoJ Deputy Governor Izuno said on Tuesday that Japan's real interest rates remain low, adding that it is appropriate to continue hikes if the economic outlook is met.
European unemployment rate fell slightly from 6.3% in June to 6.2% in July, in line with expectations. According to the European Statistics Office, the broader interest rate in the EU fell from 6.0% to 5.9%.
European Statistics estimates that 13.025 million people in the entire EU were unemployed in July, of which 10.805 million people were unemployed in the euro zone. The number dropped by -165k, and the number of unemployed people in the euro zone fell by -170k.
ECB President Christina Lagarde issued a stern warning today that it would be "very worrying" if U.S. President Donald Trump successfully controls the Fed.
Lagarde stressed in an interview with Classic Radio, "If the U.S. monetary policy is no longer independent but depends on the orders of this or that person, then I believe that due to the impact this will have on the global scale, the impact on the U.S. economic balance may be very worrying because of the impact it will have on the world, as it is the world's largest economy.
Lagarde added that Friday's U.S. Court of Appeals ruling declared most of Trump's tariffs illegal, bringing "further uncertainty" to the global economic outlook. Washington's policy unpredictability oalcs.cnbined with structural risks elsewhere has put investors on alert as global growth is already under pressure from weak trade flows and tariff disputes.
Talking about domestic affairs, Lagarde talked about the increasing political risks in France ahead of the September 8 vote of confidence. Opposition has pledged to overthrow Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's minority government due to unpopularity in 2026budget tightening plans are welcomed. The political drama hit French bonds and stocks, raising questions about the stability of the euro zone's second largest economy.
However, Lagarde stressed that France's banking system is not the source of the problem. She noted that banks have much better capital and structure than during the 2008 financial crisis and are still managed responsibly. Nevertheless, she acknowledged that the market was sensitive to political shocks and that the uncertainty of government stability continued to suppress risk sentiment.
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