The dollar fluctuates above the 98 mark, evidence of weak job market reappears

On September 4, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.15. On Wednesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 98 mark. The US market fell sharply after the occupational vacancy data showed weak recruitment of enterprises, and finally closed down 0.19% to 98.142. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.221%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.625%. Driven by the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and market risk aversion sentiment, spot gold rose for seven consecutive days, once approaching $3,580/oz during the session, setting a new record high, and finally closed up 0.73% to close at $3,559.13/oz; spot silver broke through $41/oz, continuing to hit a new high since 2011, and finally closed up 0.81% to $41.22/oz. International crude oil dived during the session after reports that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at its meeting on Sunday. WTI crude oil fell below the $64 mark and finally closed down 2.78% at $63.55/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.49% at $67.28/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.15. Market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, with some traders expecting a third rate cut by early 2026. The Fed's dovish tendency remains the main driver of the continued weakness of the dollar, which makes the dollar the worst performer among the major currencies in 2025, down nearly 10% so far this year. Technically, if the US dollar index falls below the 98.00 level, it will move to the 97.10–97.30 rangesupport level.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1657. EUR/USD rose more than 0.20% on Monday, as U.S. financial markets closed due to Labor Day holidays during a thin liquid trading session. The soft dollar and growing bets on the Fed's interest rate cut at its September meeting boosted the euro's appeal. Technically, the latest resistance level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.1685–1.1700. A breakout above this level will open the road for testing the next resistance level 1.1785–1.1800.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.34399. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD rose from a high, rebounding above 1.3400 after overall market sentiment just recovered to a full recovery of GBP/USD from a four-week low below 1.3350. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's dovish remarks have curbed the pound's gains, so broad-market investor sentiment tends to risk as traders ask the Fed to cut interest rates. Technically, if the pound/USD closes above the 1.3450 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold hovered around 3560.28. This trading day will be released on the number of layoffs of challenger oalcs.cnpanies in the United States in August, changes in the number of ADP jobs in the United States in August, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 30, and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August. In addition, the US Senate Financial oalcs.cnmittee held a hearing on the nomination of Milan as the Federal Reserve Board. FOMC Permanent Voting oalcs.cnmittee and New York Fed Chairman Williams will speak at the New York Economic Club, and investors need to pay attention.

Technical: Gold prices are expected to challenge US$3,600 per ounce in the near future. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned over to overbought, closing at an extreme reading of 80, indicating that gold may consolidate in the short term. On the upside, traders currently aim to challenge the all-time high of $3578 per ounce. If you break through that position, the next target will be $3,600 per ounce. If traders push gold prices to break above $3,600 per ounce, the upward trend in gold prices may continue. On the other hand, if the gold price falls below $3550/For ounces, sellers will target $3500/ounce, followed by the August 29 high of $3454/ounce, and then slide to $3400/ounce.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 63.48. Reuters reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are considering raising crude oil production levels, falling on concerns about global oil glut. OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet on Sunday to decide on production in October. It is widely reported that the group will consider further increasing oil production at this meeting. OPEC+ has agreed to increase its production target from April to September by about 2.2 million barrels per day, in addition to adding a quota of 300,000 barrels per day to the United Arab Emirates. Concerns about increased OPEC production are not good for WTI prices.

Technical: On Wednesday, U.S. oil rebounded slightly, basically giving up most of the gains in the previous trading day. This fully demonstrates that the current market may fall into a violent volatile pattern. The 65-USD level constitutes both support and resistance, and the 50-day index moving average also meets here, highlighting the fierce oalcs.cnpetition between bulls and bears in this area. There is indeed an increase in trading volume during Tuesday period, so we need to pay attention to whether the trend of volume can continue on Wednesday. The market is currently trying to establish a volatile range, and is currently in a critical resistance testing stage, and trading is difficult. I think the upward space for crude oil is indeed limited - Russia, OPEC and the United States are all increasing production significantly, and it is difficult to break the fundamentals. The more likely situation is to continue the horizontal oscillation trend.

Forex market trading reminder on September 4, 2025

20:15 Number of U.S. ADP employment in August

20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to August 30

20:30 US July trade account

21:45 US August S&P Global Services PMI final value

22:00 US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:00 US August Senate oalcs.cnmittee held a nomination for Federal Reserve Board members Hearing

22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to August 29

23:30 Fed Williams delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to August 29

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to August 29

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to August 29

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to August 29

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to August 29

The above content is about "【XM Group]: The US dollar fluctuates above the 98 mark, and evidence of weak employment market reappears. "The entire content of the content is carefully oalcs.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

In fact, responsibility is not helpless, not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created our beautiful life today. I will try my best to organize the article.