Wonderful Introduction:
Only by setting off can you reach your ideals and destinations, only by working hard can you achieve brilliant success, and only by sowing can you gain. Only by pursuing can one taste a dignified person.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Employment shrinkage and wages slow down, and analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 4". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.04%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.18%. The German DAX index rose 0.81%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.17%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.00%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.39%.
⑴ A survey released by the Bank of England on Thursday showed that the number of British corporate employment fell the largest in nearly four years, and wage growth is expected to slow down. In the three months ended August, enterprise employment levels fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the biggest drop since the third quarter of 2021. ⑵ The respondents expect an average salary increase of 3.6% in the next year, down from 4.6% in the past 12 months, the lowest level since the Bank of England began investigating the issue in May 2022. ⑶ Despite slowing employment and wage growth, the surveyed oalcs.cnpanies expect to raise prices by 3.7% in the next year, with monthly data showing that expectations in August fell from 3.9% to 3.5%. ⑷ Institutional analysts said that the rate of decline in planned wage growth has slowed down, and oalcs.cnpanies are dealing with higher employment costs by laying off employees rather than cutting wages. He does not expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates this year.
⑴ The Bank of England proposed a plan to tighten the regulation of the UK government bond repurchase market on Thursday, which allows financial institutions to temporarily convert their holdings of UK Treasury bonds into cash. ⑵This moveIt aims to enhance the market's risk resistance, as it has been under tremendous pressure when Treasury prices plummeted after former British Prime Minister Tras' "mini budget" in 2022. ⑶Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said that market-oriented finance and pound core interest rate market absorption rather than amplifying the impact is crucial. ⑷ The Bank of England proposed a plan that requires a greater central liquidation of UK Treasury bond repurchase transactions to reduce the risk of transaction defaults and limit the risks brought about by high leverage and disorderly closing of centralized positions. ⑸ Another option is to set a minimum risk margin or "discount" by the Bank of England's non-central liquidation of Treasury bond repurchase transactions. ⑹The Bank of England hopes to receive preliminary feedback from the financial industry and the public by November 28, and will later consider the next steps with other British authorities and conduct more detailed consultations.
⑴Goldman Sachs Group said that if private investors increase their allocation to gold, the price of gold may easily exceed $4,000 by mid-2026. Spot gold prices have hit an all-time high of $3578.50 per ounce on Wednesday. ⑵ Goldman Sachs expects that against the backdrop of the central bank's continued strong gold purchases, the price of gold will reach US$3,700 by the end of 2025 and US$4,000 in mid-2026. ⑶ The institution pointed out that if private investors turn more assets from US dollars to gold, the price of gold may even rise to US$4,500 per ounce. In addition, if 1% of private funds are relocated from the US bond market to gold, the price of gold may approach $5,000 per ounce. ⑷ The agency believes that the Fed's independence is challenged, which may trigger higher inflation, higher long-term bond yields, weaker stock markets and a decline in the dollar reserve currency status. Gold, as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust, will benefit from it.
⑴ European Central Bank official Schnabel recently made hawkish remarks, saying that central banks around the world may start hike interest rates earlier than many people expected. ⑵ Her remarks have gained attention, which confirms some concerns about structural inflation, and that central banks that are still considering further rate cuts may have limited time and space. ⑶ Schnabel's reason for hikes is that the world is becoming increasingly fragmented, the global supply chain is declining, fiscal spending is increasing, and population aging. ⑷ However, despite the hawkish official’s warning, the market is moving in the opposite direction and has even excluded any risk of interest rate hikes in 2026. ⑸ Data shows that the Euribor spread reached zero two weeks ago, but it has since turned negative, and is currently -3.5 basis points. ⑹ Nevertheless, analysts believe that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in September 2026, given the possibility of rising medium-term inflation risks.
⑴ Institutional survey shows that the vast majority of economists (66 out of 69) are expected to be the European Central BankThe deposit rate will be kept at 2.00% at the September 11 meeting, which is consistent with market expectations. ⑵ Last month, economists disagree on whether the ECB would cut further interest rates, but recent data showed that inflation is close to the target of 2% and the unemployment rate is at a historical low, which led most people to believe that the ECB has oalcs.cnpleted its rate cut cycle. ⑶ Nearly 60% of economists (40 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged this year. ⑷ In terms of economic growth, economists predict that the eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is basically the same as the August survey results. ⑸ However, economists also remind that there are still some risks in the region, such as the shrinking of Germany's economy and the political instability of some euro zone countries.
⑴ The chief executive of the Russian Federal Savings Bank warned on Thursday that the Russian economy is stagnating and may fall into recession unless the central bank cuts interest rates sharply. ⑵ He pointed out that although Russia's economic growth rate was 4.1% and 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, the heavy pressure of high interest rates is causing its economy to slow down sharply. ⑶ The CEO said bank data showed that economic growth was close to zero in July and August, reflecting that the economy is experiencing a "technical stagnation." ⑷ The Russian Central Bank has previously lowered the key interest rate from 21% to 18%, but the governor believes that in order to achieve economic recovery, interest rates need to be reduced to 12% or less. ⑸ The Russian Ministry of Finance also predicts that economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025, far lower than the previous estimate of 2.5%, mainly due to high interest rates curbing borrowing. ⑹The Minister of Economic Affairs also said that some machinery manufacturing oalcs.cnpanies have switched to working four days a week to reduce costs, indicating insufficient demand. ⑺At present, the Russian Central Bank is facing huge pressure to cut interest rates from senior officials and business leaders.
⑴ Although the market is growing concerns about the UK budget, the pound options market may provide potential investment opportunities. ⑵ The market has strong demand for pound options after the November 26 budget announcement date, which has brought implicit volatility to a few months high. ⑶ However, short-term pound options that are about to expire may be ignored by the market. ⑷ Historically, details of the UK budget were often leaked to the media a few weeks or even days before the official announcement, which could lead to early responses from the foreign exchange market. ⑸ Therefore, investors who buy short-term GBP options before the budget is announced may receive returns, especially those that buy at a lower premium. ⑹ Considering the heavy debt burden in the UK, the upcoming budget is expected to introduce some uninvited measures. ⑺The market's concerns about the UK's fiscal situation have emerged, with long-term Treasury bond yields once rose to their highest level since 1998 this week.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell, and is now at 1.1648, a drop of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EUR/USD) rose cautiously on the last trading day as the negative impact of its trading below the EAM50 continues, remaining below the 1.1660 resistance, and negative signals appear on (RSI), exacerbating negative pressure after reaching an exaggerated overbought level.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3436, a drop of 0.05%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell on the last trading day, affected by the stability of the key resistance of 1.3460, especially the impact of breaking through the bullish trend line on a short-term basis and the negative overlap signal on the (RSI), negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues to exist, and after reaching the overbought level, it is exaggerated oalcs.cnpared to the price trend, exacerbating the negative pressure on its upcoming trading.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3546.63, a drop of 0.36%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price closed higher in the last intraday trading after it was unloaded with its apparent overbought status on the (RSI), noting a positive overlap signal that increased the positive momentum, especially as the main bullish trend dominated, its trading accompanied by a supportive small slash of the track, indicating its advantage and dominance in the near term.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 40.962, a drop of 0.53%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day, with a major bullish trend dominant, and along a small slash of the trend, positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continues to exist, and in addition (RSI) there is a positive overlap signal, which indicates that a positive divergence begins to form after reaching the oversold level.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 63.350, a drop of 0.95%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price continued the decline of the previous trading day, reaching our morning target at the $62.85 support level, while being affected by a short-term breakthrough of bullish correction trend line, negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) showed positive signals after reaching the oversold level, which couldIt can reduce the upcoming losses, especially if the above support levels are stable.
Morgan Stanley: Apple (AAPL.O) will slightly raise the price of the iPhone 17 series at the 9th press conference, which is the first increase since 2017. The iPhone 17 Air will be $100 more than the iPhone 16 Plus price; the iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 (256GB), and the low-capacity option will be cancelled. The new 1TBAir is priced at $1,399. These adjustments are expected to increase the average selling price (ASP) in fiscal 2026 by 5%, much higher than general market expectations, and demand is not expected to be affected. The event will also release new Apple Watch and AirPods, but no major Apple Intelligence updates are expected.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Employment shrinks and wages slow down, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on September 4". It was carefully oalcs.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. In order to facilitate future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.