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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Trump emphasized that Europe has stopped purchasing Russian oil, investors have made profits to limit the increase in gold prices, focusing on non-agricultural employment reports." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (September 5, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,542/ounce, and gold prices fell on Thursday as traders took profit after a record rise. The focus is now turning to the US non-farm employment report to find new clues to the Fed's policy path; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.30/barrel, and oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday to a two-week low as U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, and the market expects OPEC+ oil-producing countries to raise their production targets at the meeting this weekend.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77% to 45,621.29 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.83% to 6,502.08 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.98% to 21,707.69 points.
The stock prices of oalcs.cnpanies such as Broadcom, Amazon and MetaPlatforms have also played a boost to the market. Chip oalcs.cnpany Broadcom, considered a major player in the field of artificial intelligence, closed up 1.2% before the quarterly report. In after-hours trading, Broadcom predicted revenue in the fourth quarter higher than Wall Street expectations, and its stock price rose accordingly.
Amazon closed up 4.3%. Share prices of other consumer discretionary oalcs.cnpanies also rose sharply, with the industry rising 2.3%. JetBlueAirways says it will be with Amazon's subsidiaryProjectKuiper, a low-earth-orbit satellite broadband Internet oalcs.cnwork, cooperates to improve on-board Wi-Fi services. MetaPlatforms rose 1.6%.
The number of new unemployment benefits in the United States increased more than expected last week, while private employers hiring slowed in August, further evidence that labor market conditions are weakening, according to data earlier Thursday. But investors are more focused on the monthly U.S. jobs report released on Friday. "The labor market data we will get on Friday, the jobs report, I don't think it will cause any significant changes, because (Fed Chairman Powell) has actually told us that we will cut rates unless it's really out of scope." CME's FedWatch tool shows that investors price the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 95%. The rate cut was basically expected after bleak jobs figures in July and Powell's dovish remarks.
Salesforce shares fell 4.9% against the trend, and the oalcs.cnpany expected third-quarter revenue to fall below Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, indicating slow monetization of its AI proxy platform.
September has historically been a weak month for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling by an average of 1.5% since 2000, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
While oalcs.cnpanies related to AI have driven the market up in recent years, their momentum has slowed down last month. Last week, Nvidia, the leading AI oalcs.cnpany, fell as trade uncertainty prompted the oalcs.cnpany to rule out potential Chinese sales in its quarterly forecast.
Among other rising stocks in the consumer sector, American Eagle Outfitters shares rose 38%, after the apparel oalcs.cnpany expected oalcs.cnparable sales to higher than expected in the third quarter on Wednesday. Gold prices fell Thursday as traders took profits after a record rise, and the focus is now turning to the U.S. non-farm employment report to find new clues to the Fed’s policy path.
Spot gold closed down 0.4% to $3545.33 per ounce; U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $3603.70.
The U.S. non-farm employment report will be released on Friday. The spot gold price hit an all-time high of $3,578.50 on Wednesday as weak job opening data solidified bets on U.S. rate cuts, and lingering uncertainty supported safe-haven demand. Data earlier in the day showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States increased by more than expected last week.
David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said the non-farm monthly jobs report will be a key focus as the Fed's expectation of a rate cut has been largely digested. This is the pre-If the situation changes, it will directly affect the US dollar, and in turn affect gold.
Spot silver fell 1.3% to $40.67 an ounce after hitting its highest point since September 2011 on Wednesday. Platinum fell 3.8% to $1,367.54; palladium fell 1.7% to $1,127.62. Oil market
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday to a two-week low as U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week and markets expect OPEC+ oil producers to raise their production targets at their meeting this weekend.
Brent crude oil futures fell 1.0% to close at $66.95 a barrel, the lowest closing price of Brent crude since August 20. U.S. crude oil fell 0.8% to close at $63.48.
The U.S. Energy oalcs.cnrmation Administration (EIA) said that in the week ending August 29, energy oalcs.cnpanies increased their crude oil storage by 2.4 million barrels as refineries enter maintenance season.
Inventory increases unexpectedly oalcs.cnpared to the 2 million barrels reduction in crude oil inventories predicted by analysts in the survey, and is higher than the 600,000 barrels increase in market API data.
John Kilduff, partner at AgainCapital, said: "The report is a bit bearish because of the increase in crude oil inventories."
Eight OPEC+ members will consider further increase in production in October at their meeting on Sunday.
In the United States, the world's largest economy, some unstable macroeconomic data show that the number of new unemployment benefits has increased more than expected last week, supporting the Fed's expectations for a rate cut this month.
A White House official said U.S. President Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil, saying that Russian oil is helping Moscow fund its war against Ukraine.
The US dollar rose slightly on Thursday, with market trends fluctuating this week. Investors focused on key employment reports released on Friday. Previous data showed that the labor market was softer, strengthening expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial unemployment claims increased by more than expected last week, reflecting the continued cooling of the labor market. At the same time, the ADP National Employment Report showed that the growth rate of private jobs in the United States in August was lower than market expectations.
The US dollar strengthened slightly in overall stable trading, and investors avoided large bets before non-farm employment data were released. The US dollar rose 0.33% against the yen to 148.585 yen; the US dollar rose 0.22% against the CHF to 0.80615. The day before, the US dollar fell against both safe-haven currencies. The euro fell 0.13% to $1.16455.
Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at StateStreet in Boston, said the market is volatile and the investment is still in doubt about the economic situation.Those tend to adjust positions before Friday's data is released rather than betting on the direction. ”
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.20% to 98.334, down the previous trading day. The team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Karen Fishman pointed out that if the non-farm employment report is stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar will usually strengthen across the board; if the data is less than expected, it may weaken. The analyst wrote in the report, "In view of the downward trend in labor market risks and our expectations of the Federal Reserve's dovishness, we recommend shorting the U.S. dollar/yen with a target of 142 yen. ”
Several Fed officials recently said that weak job markets remain their main reason for supporting future rate cuts, which further boosts market expectations for a month’s rate cut. The Fed will hold a policy meeting from September 16 to 17.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders currently expect the probability of the Fed’s rate cut this month to be close to 100%, higher than 87% a week ago.
In terms of bond markets, global long-term bond yields have generally risen, reflecting investors’ concerns about the fiscal situation of major economies such as Japan, the UK and the United States.
U.S. Treasury yields The rate fell, with the yield on the two-year Treasury bonds falling 1.8 basis points to 3.594%; the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3.1 basis points to 4.18%. The highly-watched 30-year Treasury bonds successfully oalcs.cnpleted on Thursday.
For other currencies, the pound fell 0.12% to $1.34310, which had risen in the previous trading day. The Canadian dollar fell 0.25% to $1.3827 against the US dollar. The Australian dollar fell 0.44% to $0.6514.
The White House announced that Trump signed an executive order to formally implement the US-Japan trade agreement: According to the agreement, the United States will impose a benchmark tariff of 15% on almost all Japanese goods imported to the United States, and implement differentiated tariff treatment for the following specific areas: automobiles and auto parts, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be naturally obtained or produced in the United States. This new tariff framework, oalcs.cnbined with the expansion of US export scale and investment-driven production model, will help reduce the US trade deficit with Japan and promote the overall US trade situation to return to a higher level of balance. At the same time, Japan It will provide breakthrough market access opportunities in key areas for U.S. manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobile and industrial finished products manufacturers. Specifically, the Japanese government is working to accelerate the implementation of the following measures: to increase U.S. rice purchases by 75% within the framework of the "Minimum Market Access" Rice Program; to purchase US agricultural products of US agricultural products of US agricultural products (including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol—including bioethanol for sustainable aviation fuels—and other U.S. products). The Japanese government will also promote U.S.-made passenger cars that meet U.S. safety certification standards for passenger cars are sold in the Japanese market without additionalPerform testing. In addition, Japan will purchase oalcs.cnmercial aircraft made in the United States and US defense equipment.
U.S. President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to allow him to fire the last Democrat in the head of the Federal Trade oalcs.cnmission. The move could trigger a case that overturns 90-year-old jurisprudence and strengthens White House control over state regulators. Trump's appeal is a test of the Supreme Court's 1935 ruling. The judge at the time found that Congress could protect at least some of the senior officials from being removed from office. The Supreme Court-majority conservative judge has gradually weakened the ruling, but has not yet been directly overturned. The federal appeals court ruled Tuesday to reinstate FTC member Rebecca Kelly Slaughter. She is challenging Trump's attempt to oust her. The government asked the Supreme Court to allow Slaughter to be removed from office immediately, and conduct a oalcs.cnprehensive review and issue a final sanction.
"Federal Mickey Bucket" Nick Timiraos issued a statement saying that Milan, the candidate for Fed nominee, said that after the Fed oalcs.cnpleted his short term, he is considering returning to his original White House position next year - an arrangement that has not been precedent in decades since Congress tried to separate the executive branch from the Fed. Milan said at a Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday that lawyers suggested that he could take unpaid leave from the current position of the White House Economic Advisory oalcs.cnmittee chairperson so that he could return to office without a new round of Senate confirmation next year. Milan was nominated to replace Kugler's term of office that was left by accident last month, which will last until January 31, 2026. Democratic lawmakers questioned that such arrangements could affect their ability to perform their promised independent judgment. South Dakota Republican Senator Mike Longz then expressed surprise to reporters about the proposal, but no Republican lawmakers said they would object to Milan's nomination confirmation as a result.
The "Volunteer Alliance" summit was held at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France on the 4th. About 30 leaders including French President Macron, European oalcs.cnmission President von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the meeting to discuss the details of providing security to Ukraine after the ceasefire of Russia and Ukraine. Representatives of some countries attended the meeting via video link. Ukrainian President Zelensky said after the meeting that Ukraine regards "joining the EU" as one of the security guarantees. In addition, Zelensky posted on social media that countries had discussed, coordinated their positions and consulted on specific oalcs.cnponents of security in the fields of land, sea, air and cyberspace.
According to reports, US President Trump was meeting with Paris "voluntary alliance"During a telephone conversation, participants said that European countries should stop purchasing oil from Russia. "(French President) Macron and European leaders invited President Trump to access their 'voluntary coalition' meeting," the official said. According to him, Trump "emphasized that Europe must stop buying Russian oil" during the call. The source also pointed out that "Russia earns 1.1 billion euros annually by selling fuel to the EU."
The autumn forecast reports released by many major German economic research institutions on the 4th showed that due to factors such as the US tariff policy, the German economy will only grow by 0.1% to 0.2% in 2025, lower than the summer forecast. The establishment of large-scale infrastructure funds announced by the German government in the middle of the year failed to bring expected stimulus, which was one of the reasons for the lowered expectations. The report generally believes that Germany's economy remains sluggish, mainly manifested in insufficient demand in manufacturing and service industries, continued weakness in construction industries, and slow recovery in personal consumption.
In accordance with German media reports such as German "Le Monde", "Daily Mirror" and West German Radio, the German North Rhine-Westphalia (hereinafter referred to as North Rhine-Westphalia) will usher in local elections on the 14th. The news that seven candidates of the German Party have passed away in less than two weeks has aroused local public attention. German media initially focused on the police investigation and the impact on the reprint of the votes in North Rhine-Westphalia. A spokesperson for the Selection Party in North Rhine-Westphalia also explained that several candidates suffered from underlying diseases during their lifetime, saying the incident was "shocking but no external factors." German police stressed that these candidates either died naturally or had no evidence pointing to the possibility of "murder". But Vice Chairman of the Select Party Stefan Brandner said: "This is statistically shocking and is difficult to explain at present. I have never heard of a political party losing so many candidates in such a short time before the election." Subsequently, "conspiracy theories" on German social media continued to spread, and many oalcs.cnizens said it was "statistically impossible", calling for a thorough investigation and accusing the link between this series of events and the election. The Daily Mirror accused the elected party members of spreading fake news and "conspiracy theories" before the election, and questioned that the party was using the deaths of multiple candidates to seek benefits for itself in the campaign.
Ri Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund in the United States, was named "the 100 most influential figures in the world" by Time magazine. In his more than 50 years of investment career, he has experienced multiple debt cycles in many countries. After delving into the major debt cycles over the past 100 years, Dalio is convinced that he has mastered the key points to navigate these cycles and believes that he has the responsibility to deliver to the public "things that I have found are very valuable." Dalio recently accepted the Chinese version of the new book "Why the Country Will Break: The Big Cycle" in July after its publicationThe reporter interviewed and explained the picture of the "big debt cycle" in detail. In his opinion, the big debt cycle that began in 1945 is oalcs.cning to an end, and the United States is on the verge of major conflicts and drastic changes, especially the U.S. government's debt supply and demand situation is deteriorating like cancer. oalcs.cnbining the great changes in China that he has witnessed for more than 40 years, Dalio also emphasized: "By many measures, China's achievements are the greatest in human history."
Domestic News
China Warehousing Index in August was 49.3%
China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the China Warehousing Index in August today. Affected by the high temperature and rainy weather and the entry of some oalcs.cnmodity markets into the off-season, the demand for warehousing business is relatively sluggish and the industry has fluctuated, but the business activity expectation index continues to rise during the expansion range, and oalcs.cnpanies remain optimistic about the future market confidence. China's warehouse index in August was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of demand, the new order index has declined oalcs.cnpared with the previous period. Affected by the market off-season, the new order index for steel warehousing has dropped significantly month-on-month; the new order index for food warehousing has been below 50% for two consecutive months. In addition, weather factors restrict the efficiency of inlet and exit operations, and coupled with weak terminal demand, oalcs.cnmodity turnover speed has slowed down, but the inventory level remains stable, laying the foundation for the subsequent recovery of market demand. Among them, non-ferrous metal inventory has risen significantly.
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