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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month is close to 100%, so wait for the US data tonight." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 4, financial markets became relatively calm earlier on Thursday following the volatility in the first half of the week. The US dollar (USD) stands firm, and investors await the release of key macroeconomic data, including the number of weekly initial jobless claims, the balance of goods trade in July, the August ADP Employment Change and Supply Management Association (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Several Fed policymakers are also planning to speak during U.S. trading hours.
The improvement in risk sentiment and disappointing U.S. employment data show that JOLTS job openings fell from 7.35 million in June to 7.18 million in July, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall on Wednesday's U.S. session. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that despite the growing uncertainty in the prospects of negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, he remains oalcs.cnmitted to seeking a peaceful deal between Russia and Ukraine. During the European session on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index maintained a slight gain above 98.00, while U.S. stock index futures remained almost flat.
Euro/USD closed slightly higher on Wednesday, but it was difficult to get further bullish momentum earlier on Thursday. The pair last fluctuated in a narrow channel around 1.1650. Later in the European session, the European Statistics Office will release retail sales data for the euro zone for July.
Australia's Asian session data showed that the trade surplus in July expanded to A$7.3 billion (US$4.74 billion) from A$5.4 billion after revised in June. This data significantly exceeded the market's expectations of A$4.9 billion surplus. Despite the optimistic data, AustraliaThe dollar/USD is still at a disadvantage, trading in the negative area below 0.6550.
The pound/dollar rose nearly 0.4% on Wednesday and wiped out some of Tuesday's declines as UK long-term UK Treasury yields pulled back. The GBP/USD fell slightly in early Thursday, trading below 1.3450. British Chancellor Rachel Reeves dismissed concerns from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which predicts that the UK faces a £50 billion budget gap and that if parliament cannot solve its budget problems, the government may need to use the IMF's fund pool in the future.
The USD/JPY lost its traction after rising to a one-month highest level above 149.00 on Wednesday and closed slightly lower on the day. The USD/JPY held its ground in early trading Thursday, rising to 148.50.
In terms of oalcs.cnmodities, Brent crude oil fell 0.6% to $67.17 per barrel. In terms of precious metals, spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,529.94, down from the record high set on Wednesday.
Euro: As range trading continues, the intraday deviation of the euro/dollar remains neutral for the time being. As long as the 1.1573 support level is held, further rise will be beneficial. The correction decline from 1.1829 should be oalcs.cnpleted when the three waves fell to 1.1390. On the upside, above 1.1741 will first retest the 1.1829 high. Firm breakthroughs will resume a larger upward trend. However, a continuous breakthrough of 1.1573 will weaken this view and indicate that the correction pattern of 1.1829 is extending, and another downward leg is moving towards 1.1390 again.
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